A 6% swing in Brent oil prices within 24 hours after the US and Israeli attack on Iran, combined with the Strait of Hormuz restrictions, has left Africa’s energy outlook hanging in the balance. Brent crude oil was priced at $105 at noon on March 9, but the price plummeted to $91.58 after US President Donald Trump said the war was “almost over.” However, conflicting statements about the continuation of the conflict started Tuesday with renewed concerns about further price hikes. For Africa, this series of events had several consequences. The continent’s oil producers are facing a windfall, while many are at risk of spiraling fuel inflation. As markets anxiously wait to see whether Brent prices will rise further, the question is what a prolonged rise will mean for Africa’s producers, consumers and broader economic stability.
Crude oil prices rise due to Strait of Hormuz disruption
Handling 25% of the world’s maritime oil trade, the Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint connecting Gulf oil to the rest of the world. The International Energy Agency expects 20 million barrels per day (bpd) to pass through the strait in 2025, with 20% of global LNG exports coming primarily from Qatar and the UAE. Due to the escalation of the war, maritime traffic has been severely disrupted, and as of March 9, traffic has almost completely stopped.
Exports across the Gulf have been set back due to severe restrictions on vessel movement. This caused prices to soar. Brent soared to $105.71 on Monday after briefly touching $119.50, according to Reuters, but analysts warned that prices could rise significantly if the shutdown continues. With Iran threatening military action against any ships attempting to cross the Strait, producers are not just dealing with market uncertainty, but also the physical inability to move barrels.
Major global producers are downsizing
The world’s major oil producing countries in the Gulf region are responding by cutting production. Qatar Energy on Monday declared force majeure against its LNG customers following a drone attack on its facilities. Kuwait said on Sunday it had cut oil and refining production due to transport disruptions. The United Arab Emirates has also cut production, and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said it was managing offshore production levels to address storage requirements while onshore operations continued as normal. Meanwhile, Iraq has been the hardest hit, with production from its southern oil fields dropping 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day. Saudi Aramco has begun cutting production at two oil fields, increasing the strain on Saudi supplies. Taken together, these responses indicate that the market is becoming more constrained by the day.
African producers stand to benefit, but need to be careful
From a supplier perspective, the first-order effects are positive for Africa’s largest producers. Angola has already signaled that higher prices will help, with José de Lima Massano, the country’s coordinating economic minister, warning that soaring prices could raise import costs. This comes as many producers across the continent move to scale up production. Nigeria and Libya are both aiming to reach 2 million barrels per day in the coming years, while Ghana and Algeria are aiming for even more.
Recent price increases tend to boost earnings, but the continent’s upward trend is uneven. Even some producing countries still import most of their refined products, reducing the benefits of higher export prices. Angola imports 72% of its refined products, Nigeria 54% and Ghana 77%. In other words, Africa’s upstream story looks stronger at $107 Brent, but its downstream balance sheet remains much weaker.
What does this mean for African consumers?
Given this dependence on imports, most of the continent is not in a position to benefit from high oil prices and is exposed to them. Downstream vulnerabilities are already visible. South Africa, which is dependent on Saudi supplies, is preparing for fuel price increases in April 2026, with figures showing an increase of R7 per liter. Fuel prices in Zimbabwe increased by 16.45% in March 2026, with similar increases seen in Uganda, Kenya and other countries. That is the bigger risk for Africa. Once Brent crosses $100, the divide between African oil exporters and consumers will become even sharper and the economic impact more uneven. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Africa could become even more vulnerable.
