A leaked intelligence assessment from Sudan’s General Intelligence Service has raised concerns within the country’s security services that the political rhetoric of some Islamist groups could undermine Sudan’s diplomatic relations with key Gulf partners.
The document, issued by the agency’s Analysis and Evaluation Division, shows that authorities are closely monitoring recent public statements by members of the Islamic movement that appear to express support for Iran amid rising tensions in the region. According to the report, if such rhetoric continues, it could put Sudan in a delicate diplomatic position and give the impression to regional and international actors that Khartoum is siding with one side of the conflict.
Security analysts have warned that these statements, widely disseminated through traditional media and social media platforms, amplify international influence and make it easier for outside observers to portray Sudan as leaning towards the Iranian axis.
The intelligence report notes that several Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are closely monitoring political developments in Sudan, including statements issued by political groups deemed to have ties to Iran. The report warns that such developments could cause some Gulf capitals to reconsider the level of economic and financial support currently provided to Sudan.
Accordingly, the report recommends urgent diplomatic engagement with Riyadh and Doha through official government channels to clarify Sudan’s foreign policy position. The report emphasizes that statements by particular political factions should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the state and emphasizes the importance of maintaining strong relations with Gulf states for Sudan’s economic and political stability.
The document also reveals internal discussions within Sudan’s state institutions regarding securing alternative sources of military funding and weapons procurement following the disruption of Iranian military supply lines in connection with escalating regional conflicts.
According to intelligence assessments, sustaining continuous field operations requires diversification of sources of logistical and military support to avoid dependence on a single external partner. Officials have warned that over-reliance on one supplier represents a strategic weakness amid rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics.
The report further recommends increased monitoring of communication channels between members of the Islamic Movement and Iranian entities, including steps to eliminate direct contacts that could undermine the independence of Sudan’s national decision-making or expose Sudan to further diplomatic pressure.
These recommendations are part of a broader strategic review by Sudanese intelligence agencies examining the impact of the escalating conflict between Washington and the Iranian government and its potential impact on Sudan’s political and military environment. Analysts say regional escalation is already reshaping alliances and security calculus across the Middle East and North Africa, as explored in a recent analysis of the evolving Iran-US conflict and Gulf alliance.
According to the document, Sudan is navigating a complex strategic situation due to perceived contradictions between official diplomatic messages and political rhetoric, which risk complicating the country’s international position.
The intelligence assessment also notes that disruptions related to U.S.-Iranian tensions are impacting military supply routes previously relied on by some Sudanese institutions, posing logistical challenges for the military.
At the same time, security officials are seeing signs of a decline in external funding as regional partners grow wary of Sudan becoming embroiled in a broader geopolitical conflict.
The report added that scrutiny of Sudan increased after international media reported on a video showing members of the Islamic movement expressing support for Iran. Some foreign news outlets and research institutions have cited the footage as evidence of Iran’s potential influence in Africa, and Sudanese authorities fear it could expose the country to increased diplomatic pressure in the coming months.
