As global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies prepare to surge from 2027 with new projects in the US and Qatar, Africa faces important decisions. Energy analysts and industry leaders say the continent must choose between continuing to prioritize exports or strategically investing in infrastructure that will foster domestic growth.
Bloomberg’s Global LNG Market Outlook 2030 predicts global supply to reach 594 million tonnes by 2030, a 42% increase from 2024. This expansion is expected to create a period of oversupply and increase competition among exporting countries, presenting both opportunities and challenges for African producers.
In its recently released Africa Energy Situation 2026 Outlook, the African Energy Chamber (AEC) predicts that natural gas demand in Africa will increase by 60 percent to 90 billion cubic meters by 2050, from 55 billion cubic meters in 2020. Population growth, industrialization and increased energy demand are driving this growth across the continent.
Despite increasing domestic demand, much of Africa’s gas continues to be exported rather than consumed domestically. Limited pipeline networks, underdeveloped transmission systems, and inadequate processing and storage facilities prevent gas from reaching domestic markets, making LNG exports the most viable monetization route backed by international financial structures.
North Africa currently produces two-thirds of the continent’s gas, but AEC projections predict that this share will fall to 40% by 2035 as sub-Saharan gas production accelerates. By 2050, sub-Saharan LNG supplies could increase fourfold, fundamentally reshaping the continent’s energy landscape.
There is a growing momentum centered on infrastructure development to capture more domestic value from gas resources. New LNG terminals are under construction at Richards Bay in South Africa and the port of Nador in Morocco. Earlier this month, Ethiopia signed a landmark agreement to advance its Gas-by-Rail Economic Corridor initiative, a 75,000-kilometre freight rail system designed to transport LNG to more than 40 sub-Saharan countries.
Several major pipeline projects are underway, including the $25 billion Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline across 13 West African states, the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline linking Nigeria and Algeria, and the $1.5 billion Mozambique-Zambia Pipeline announced for 2025. Senegal is developing a multiphase gas network linking offshore production with power plants, industrial areas and urban areas.
Ghana is planning five multipurpose petrochemical plants, each producing 90,000 barrels per day of chemicals, including fertilizers and lubricants, to support the industrial and agricultural sectors. Countries including Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Senegal, Ghana and Mozambique have integrated gas-to-power goals into their national strategies.
Natural gas already supplies 40 percent of Africa’s electricity, with North Africa accounting for 32 percent of that share. AEC projections predict that natural gas will provide 45 percent of Africa’s electricity by 2050. By then, gas-fired power generation capacity could have expanded by more than 77 gigawatts, while maintaining a share of the total energy mix of around 40 percent, illustrating how gas can act as a transitional fuel in the growth of renewable energy.
NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, emphasized the strategic importance of infrastructure investment. “Export projects alone will not secure Africa’s energy future. Strategic investments in gas infrastructure will determine whether increased production translates into electricity access, industrial capacity and economic resilience,” Ayuk said in a report released on Tuesday.
Financing constraints continue to be a challenge as domestic infrastructure projects require patient capital, government support and credit enhancement, which are often easier to secure for export-focused LNG development. But analysts say increased investment in domestic infrastructure could allow natural gas to play a much larger role in powering homes, industry and economic growth across the continent.
With global competition in energy markets intensifying and LNG oversupply expected to continue, Africa’s long-term challenge will be to convert gas resources into sustainable economic value. Strengthening infrastructure, improving regional connectivity and supporting local consumption are essential to ensure the continent can fully benefit from its growing gas potential, rather than simply acting as a supplier of raw materials to global markets.
Africa Energy Week 2026 is expected to serve as a strategic forum to reposition gas not just as an export commodity, but as a foundation for long-term energy security, industrial development and inclusive growth across the continent.
