Early last year, I was invited to attend the “High-Level Engagement on Strengthening the Lobito Corridor and Critical Minerals Supply Chains” held at the periphery of the 2025 Mining Indaba. Perhaps they expected too much from the US delegation considering the change in government. However, the conference ultimately turned out to be an enlightening experience.
Everyone was very polite. Representatives from Angola and Zambia were briefed by economists from The Economist magazine before holding a panel discussion on Lobito’s exciting prospects. The African Development Bank bigwig emphasized the bank’s continued commitment to the project, but everyone could read between the lines.
After the meeting, participants went upstairs for drinks and canapés. A jazz pianist set the mood. Frank Tayali, the gregarious Zambian Transport Minister, insisted during a panel discussion that Zambia welcomes U.S. investment. However, the US representatives, who came empty-handed, only made small talk.
It was a strange experience, but I wasn’t surprised to hear that funding for the project had since been stopped. Perhaps this is simply because Donald Trump refuses to support anything proposed by Joe Biden or the EU. Perhaps this is just a normal downside of an election cycle, where a new administration needs time to reassess its strategic priorities.
But the Lobito Corridor represented a golden opportunity for the United States to shift Zambia’s mineral exports westward, gain access to Angola’s rare earths, and secure a foothold in West Africa. This should have been a given for the next government.
The cost of the project was relatively modest, with US contributions ultimately estimated to total around $1 billion (approximately R16.4 billion), compared to similar contributions from development banks and the EU totaling around $3 billion. It supported railway upgrades to improve Western countries’ access to Africa’s minerals, and there would have been no obligation to support mineral beneficiation.
These aren’t big numbers considering the Trump administration gave $20 billion to bail out Argentina, largely due to President Trump’s personal affinity for Javier Milley. If the United States wanted to diversify its critical mineral supply chain from China, the Lobito Corridor would have been a rational and affordable investment.
But the Lobito Corridor project appears to have hit a dead end after the Trump administration cut funding for engineering and feasibility studies. Meanwhile, China is expected to continue to invest money and expand its influence across Africa.
Despite rail and power bottlenecks, Chinese companies are acquiring copper mines in Zambia and increasing refining capacity. The Chinese government’s recently unveiled plan to upgrade the 1,800km strategic railway trunk linking Zambia’s Copperbelt and Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port is an important geopolitical move given the eventual US withdrawal from the region.
The rail upgrade will significantly increase the profitability of China’s investments in Zambia, secure China’s access to Zambian copper, and solidify China’s economic dominance on the African continent. Given the amount of copper that Chinese miners can book online, Tazara could be a good alternative to the once-promising Lobito Corridor.
For historical reasons, this may be a fitting result, given that the Tazara Railway was the largest overseas infrastructure project undertaken by China during the Mao era, when it opened in 1975. The railway project epitomized Sino-African cooperation and minimized Zambia’s dependence on politically ostracized apartheid South Africa.
However, by the new millennium, new sea routes changed the flow of trade in the region, and the presence of aging railways gradually declined. In recent decades, the line’s condition has deteriorated and transport volumes have decreased significantly. However, given the growing demand for critical minerals, there is great potential for underutilized railways.
The recent restructuring announcement therefore has great geopolitical significance, as Tanzania and Zambia are working more closely with Beijing, which is determined to further strengthen its presence in Africa. It is a mutually beneficial relationship, with African countries seeking to promote trade and attract investment while China gains vital resources and political allegiance while earning a healthy return on investment.
A new $1.4 billion investment from China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC was the original builder of the line) was recently approved by the governments of Tanzania, Zambia and China. Built as a 30-year concession to the CCECC, the line will eventually be handed over to the African host country at the end of the initial concession period.
The first three years will be devoted to new rolling stock procurement, signal upgrades and track renovations, with investments including $1.1 billion in track modernization and approximately $300 million for 34 locomotives and 760 freight cars. After the completion of the initial phase, Tazara aims to significantly increase its annual cargo tonnage from the current average of 500,000 tonnes to more than 2 million tonnes per year.
Once the railway is upgraded, Zambia’s inland copper miners will enjoy a profitable alternative to South Africa’s congested ports and border crossings, with improved routes reducing costs and export times. This should boost employment and economic growth as adjacent industries benefit from expanded logistics infrastructure.
Zambia, a landlocked country, is expected to be the biggest beneficiary as increased copper exports allow it to tap into its resource wealth. Tayari said the revitalization “is not just about restoring the railway line, but rekindling our vision of regional integration, economic growth and shared prosperity.”
Speaking at the signing ceremony, Tayari added that the project will provide farmers, traders and other industries with a vital link to markets across the region, while creating new opportunities for young people. That’s the core of the problem. Africa’s young and fast-growing economies require infrastructure investment to realize their full potential, and China is responding to that call.
America had an opportunity. But political uncertainty in Washington, including a general lack of interest in cooperating with Africa and a lack of urgency about securing access to critical minerals (despite claims to the contrary), means Zambia is turning to China instead.
Not surprisingly, China’s de facto control over most of the world’s critical minerals (which probably includes much of Russia’s mineral exports, which are currently banned in the West) gives it a significant advantage in its strategic competition with the United States, while ensuring the security of supplies to its vast industrial base.
Meanwhile, Africa would benefit from improved infrastructure, increased economic growth, and closer relationships with committed partners. While the United States has imposed tariffs and travel restrictions on countries across Africa, China has opened its domestic market to African exports and made significant infrastructure investments. So the race for influence in Africa may already be over.
Mr. Schwitz is an independent BRICS analyst.
