On December 26, 2025, Israel officially recognized Somaliland, also known as “Somaliland,” as an independent state. The move was seen as a precursor to Israeli military and intelligence plans to forcibly relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Somaliland. The recognition follows a joint declaration signed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Somaliland region’s self-proclaimed president Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, establishing full diplomatic relations, including an exchange of ambassadors. Israel thus became the first United Nations member state to formally recognize Somaliland as a sovereign and independent state. This position directly contradicts the established Chinese position, which fundamentally opposes this mysterious Israeli move and the possibility of further Palestinian displacement plans.
China’s security, military, and intelligence agencies understand that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is aimed at changing geographic or demographic realities, which China views as a dangerous precedent that threatens international peace and security and maritime navigation in the Red Sea. From the perspective of Chinese intelligence, this recognition of Somaliland by Israel is implicitly framed within the context of the ongoing normalization agreements known as the Abraham Accords, and includes a clear quid pro quo for Israel to formally incorporate Somaliland into these agreements with US support. China’s strong concerns about Israel’s recognition of Somaliland stem from, among other things, the original agreement’s focus on cooperation in maritime security, which conflicts with China’s maritime interests in East Africa and the region around the Horn of Africa.
Officials in Beijing predict that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland will fundamentally change the balance of power in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions. This would threaten the interests of China’s allies in the region, such as Iran. Through this recognition and the establishment of an alliance and partnership with Somaliland, Israel is seeking to establish a strategic foothold off the coast of Yemen in order to monitor Houthi activities and prevent attacks on Israeli commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea. Israel’s desire to recognize the breakaway region of Somaliland is also aimed at securing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Somaliland’s location overlooking the Gulf of Aden increases Israel’s ability to protect ships bound for the port of Eilat and provide logistical support for Israel’s maritime security operations. In addition to Israel’s desire to develop the port of Berbera in the Horn of Africa, seen as a potential alternative port and competitor in the region, cooperation between Israel and Somaliland is aimed at increasing the efficiency of supply chains linking the Red Sea and African markets. This could reduce Israel’s dependence on other sea routes controlled by rival powers hostile to Israel. To this end, Israeli military aid and Somaliland’s recognition have helped it gain air superiority. Somaliland declared full control of its airspace in November 2025, a move further cemented by Israel’s recognition of the new area through the provision of advanced Israeli technology for surveillance, signals and tracking systems. This would affect air traffic and navigation in the Horn of Africa, a development that would seriously conflict with the interests of China and its Egyptian ally.
Therefore, China and Egypt formally announced their solidarity with the federal government in the legitimate capital, Mogadishu, in rejecting and strongly condemning this Israeli-Somaliland move as a serious violation of their sovereignty and territorial integrity, while warning of the implications for stability in the Horn of Africa and maritime security in the Red Sea region.
China’s official position on Zionist ambitions was clear and consistent with Egypt’s position regarding the unity and territorial integrity of Somalia and its current capital, Mogadishu, in the face of Israel’s ambitions and plans to forcibly expel the Palestinian people. China publicly reiterated its commitment to the principle of respecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Diplomatically, China does not recognize Somaliland as an independent state and considers it part of a united Somalia, consistent with its traditional position against global separatist movements.
As a result, Chinese think tanks and intelligence agencies have provided varying analyzes on whether Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is intended to pave the way for Palestinian resettlement in Somaliland, with Chinese officials focusing on the potential impact on maritime traffic in the region. China’s concerns about the motives behind Israel’s recognition of Somaliland began in 2024, as China’s security, military, and intelligence services continue to analyze the nature and timing of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, linking it to the possibility of the United States recognizing the strategically important breakaway area of Somaliland on the Red Sea and accepting the principle of forcibly evicting Palestinians there. This followed the signing of a memorandum of understanding by Somaliland. They deepened their understanding with neighboring Ethiopia and granted a maritime corridor in exchange for their approval. This was met with vetoes from Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, and received Egyptian and Arab support for Somalia against separatist attempts secretly led by Israel to achieve its own interests.
Here, officials in Beijing view Israel’s perception of Somaliland within the framework of regional competition and conflict between Israel and the United States. For this reason, China favors an alliance with Egypt in order to support the unification of Somalia and reject any parallel presence that Israel might impose on the sensitive region of the Horn of Africa, given the impact on maritime navigation and the undeniable threat this poses to the interests of both Egypt and China. Beijing sees the move between Israel and Somaliland, already supported by some in Washington, as part of a broader U.S. strategy to counter Chinese influence in key waterways such as the Gulf of Aden, Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.
Therefore, China tacitly and firmly rejected the plan to deport Palestinians to the “breakaway areas of Somaliland”, considering Gaza a non-negotiable Palestinian territory. China also categorically rejects Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, viewing it as a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and in service of its displacement agenda, which China opposes in every international forum. China emphasized that “Gaza is the homeland of the Palestinian people and an integral part of the Palestinian territory.” Accordingly, China’s official position rejects any unilateral measures, actions or plans to forcibly relocate Gaza residents to Somaliland or other locations, including South Sudan, as such actions constitute a serious violation of international law. China also emphasized the principle of “Palestinian autonomy” as part of the two-state solution.
