Plans to electrify Uganda’s transport sector are being promoted not only as a means to reduce emissions, but also as an opportunity to rebuild lives in a country where transport is highly informal and employment is fragile. A new assessment by Nyen Consulting for the African Development Bank Group, supported by the Climate Investment Fund and carried out in collaboration with Uganda’s Ministry of Labor and Transport, examines how this change is likely to impact drivers, mechanics, manufacturers, women and finances over the next 10 years.
Why is boda so important?
Motorcycle taxis, known as boda bodas, form the backbone of urban transportation in Uganda. They account for about half of all electric vehicles and generate income for hundreds of thousands of people, mostly young men. It also contributes to traffic congestion, air pollution, fuel imports and traffic accidents, especially in Kampala. Building on Uganda’s commitment to combating climate change, the government plans to replace 60 per cent of its boda boda fleet with electric bikes by 2035 and increase its reliance on minibuses (kamyunye) to move people more efficiently.
The report shows that this change could slow the unchecked growth of motorcycles while preserving affordable mobility. However, it has also become clear that the real question is not whether electric cars will work, but who will gain and who will lose from the widespread use of electric cars.
Increase your salary with electric bikes
For boda boda drivers, the numbers look encouraging. Electric bikes are much cheaper to run than gasoline engines. It requires no fuel, much less maintenance, and no engine oil. The battery replacement model, which many e-bike companies have already adopted, has similar upfront costs as traditional bikes, as riders buy the bike without a battery and pay for each replacement.
As a result, monthly operating costs are expected to be reduced by approximately 45%. By 2035, the average driver who switches to electric vehicles could see their monthly income increase by nearly 200,000 Ugandan shillings and their profits increase by about 33%. Young drivers will benefit the most. People under 20, who currently have the lowest incomes and are renting more bikes, could see their incomes increase by more than 60%. For many people, electrification can mean the difference between saving money and saving money.
Work beyond the handlebars
The impact of electrification is not limited to motorcycle riders. The planned expansion of electric Kamunye minibuses could create more than 10,000 jobs by 2035, including drivers, conductors and other workers at taxi ranks. These minibuses can carry more passengers per trip, helping to reduce congestion while creating more stable jobs.
There are also quiet opportunities in manufacturing. As demand for electric bikes and minibuses increases, Uganda could assemble batteries and vehicles domestically. The report estimates that about 3,100 manufacturing jobs could be created by 2035, many centered in the Jinja and Busoga regions, where industrial activity already exists. These jobs could help Uganda move beyond informal services to higher-value industrial work, but only if the workers have the right skills.
Who risks being left behind?
Not everyone automatically benefits. Motorcycle maintenance and repair jobs are under threat because electric bikes require far less repair than gas-powered bikes. While electric vehicle maintenance will create new jobs, the report estimates that Uganda could see a net loss of around 2,400 repair jobs by 2035. Losses are expected to occur later in the transition period, from 2029 onwards, giving time to prepare. Up to 80% of current mechanics could be retrained to work on electric vehicles, but this will require early investment in skills, qualifications and support for older and vulnerable workers.
Gender inequality is also a major risk. Women make up only about 1 percent of boda boda riders and are underrepresented among Kamunye drivers and manufacturing workers. Without intentional policies regarding safety, training, finances, public attitudes, etc., women are likely to miss out on most of the new incomes and jobs created by electrification.
clean air, electricity and public funding
Electrifying boda bodas will reduce tailpipe emissions, but the report argues for realism. By 2035, air pollution levels across the country are expected to drop slightly by around 0.22 micrograms per cubic meter of PM2.5. Localized improvements along busy routes may be more pronounced, but electrification alone will not solve Uganda’s air quality crisis.
Electric vehicles also increase electricity demand, but not enough to overwhelm the power system. By 2035, electric motorcycles and minibuses are expected to use less than 3% of total electricity demand. The impact on government finances is less clear. Increased electricity sales could increase tax revenues, but lower fuel imports and fuel taxes could offset these gains.
At the end of the day, the report’s message is simple. Transport electrification can increase incomes, create jobs and support climate goals, but only if managed carefully. Technology will set the tone, but policy will determine whether Uganda’s electricity future is fair, inclusive and truly transformative.
First release date: Developer talk
