aFrika’s ability to leapfrog traditional power systems and deploy renewable energy at scale is no pipe dream. Wärtsilä’s in-depth research has demonstrated that with the right support of flexible power technologies, Africa’s ambitious renewable energy goals are not only achievable, but also the soundest and cheapest strategy for the continent’s successful electrification.
A new power generation paradigm ideal for Africa
There has been much discussion about Africa’s ability to ‘leapfrog’ the way power systems have been built in the Western world. For more than a century, traditional power systems have been based on centralized power generation, with a limited number of large thermal power plants providing baseload electricity through a large power grid. But this method of generating electricity is coming to an end. The climate emergency calls for a 180-degree paradigm shift in which renewable energy replaces thermal power plants as a baseload energy source.
This new generation paradigm is perfect for Africa in many ways. The continent is home to some of the highest wind and solar energy resources on the planet, meaning the renewable energy plants built here are among the most productive in the world. Almost everywhere in Africa, renewable energy is currently the cheapest power generation option available.
Although relatively ambitious renewable energy targets have been set by most governments across the continent, skepticism remains widespread as to whether renewables, which are intermittent in nature, can provide a reliable source of baseload electricity. This skepticism is unfounded. With the right implementation of grid balancing technologies such as gas engine power plants and energy storage, large amounts of renewable energy can be built into the system while ensuring a stable and reliable network. Having built 76 GW of power plants in 180 countries around the world, Wärtsilä’s energy experts certainly know a thing or two about that.
Building a highly reliable power system
Yes, renewable energy is intermittent, but unless we underestimate the need for flexible power capacity, this is a challenge we have long known how to solve.
As intermittent renewable energy becomes the new baseload, systems will have to cope with large amounts of fluctuating power that can disrupt the grid. Therefore, flexible power must be available to not only increase production at the same rate as wind and solar production fluctuates, but also to meet energy demands that vary throughout the day. System imbalances can sometimes be large, but as long as the introduction of renewable energy is matched with a corresponding level of flexible power capacity, the system remains secure.
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Flexible engine power plants are the only technology designed to work in conjunction with renewable energy, as they can efficiently cope with multiple starts and stops each day. It also has the great advantage of being able to operate on a variety of fuels, from today’s natural gas and heavy oil to tomorrow’s competitive and widely available locally sourced hydrogen and biofuels. Thanks to this multi-fuel capability, engine power plants are not only an excellent hedge against fuel supply risks, but also the ultimate ‘future-proof’ technology for energy breakthroughs, as gas engines can be easily converted to run on green fuels such as hydrogen, achieving 100% renewable energy. Engine power plants provide a solid, long-term foundation on which African countries can build modern, resilient and clean power systems.
Energy leaps require a bespoke approach.
Achieving energy leapfrog is a complex process that takes decades. Each country in Africa is characterized by a unique combination of natural resources, geographic opportunities and constraints, population density, and myriad other parameters. Therefore, each country requires its own tailored and optimal power system expansion plan to achieve the leap forward.
What would such a plan look like in practice? Let’s take Nigeria as an example. Using advanced energy system modeling techniques, Wärtsilä analysts have designed a detailed roadmap showing how Nigeria can move forward in building a 100% renewable electricity system and reach its 2060 net zero goal.
According to our model, by 2060, Nigeria’s power capacity will consist of 1,200 GW of renewable energy, with a total of 283 GW of energy storage and 34 GW of flexible engine power plants required for grid balancing purposes. Meanwhile, inflexible power sources like coal, oil, and gas turbine power plants are now the exception rather than the norm.
For this plan to be successful, Nigeria’s domestic gas must still play an important transitional role. It will be mobilized as a cheap bridge fuel for engine power plants to support intermittent renewable energy generation until these plants are converted to run purely on green hydrogen in the early 2040s.
This is the healthiest power system from both an environmental and economic point of view. Our research shows that investing in renewable energy and flexibility through gas engines and energy storage is the most cost-effective way for Nigeria to reduce energy costs, increase energy access and improve grid reliability. But for the plan to succeed, the country will need to significantly improve its transmission infrastructure, develop a strong and credible policy framework, and attract significant investment.
The global transition to renewable energy presents Nigeria and Africa as a whole with a unique opportunity to leapfrog the carbon-based electricity systems that have become the norm in Western countries. Realizing this opportunity would represent a major step forward in the country’s development. However, the appropriate and carefully planned deployment of flexible power technologies that balance the intermittency of renewable energy is a prerequisite for a successful energy breakthrough in Nigeria, as elsewhere on the continent.
