Supply chain tensions and China’s processing dominance could push Africa from being an exporter of raw materials to a strategic supplier, Africa Finance Corporation finds Africa’s vast mineral reserves are taking on new strategic importance as geopolitical tensions increasingly fragment global trade, according to a new report from Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).
Downtoearth.org cited the report as saying changing trade rules, export restrictions and increased industrial competition are reshaping global supply chains. Against this backdrop, Africa has an opportunity to reposition itself, but only if countries decide carefully where and how to participate in delicate global value chains.
The report, Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals, 2026, lists “trade and geo-economic realignment” as one of its five key findings, arguing that it is increasing the strategic relevance of Africa’s minerals at a time when supply chains for rare earths, battery materials and other critical inputs are under visible strain.
Major economies are concerned about concentration risks and national security and are seeking alternative sources of supply. Africa, which has the world’s most diverse mineral wealth, is at the center of its exploration. Africa’s mineral resources are estimated to be worth $29.5 trillion at mine sites, approximately 20% of the world’s total.
Of this, $8.6 trillion remains untapped, equivalent to approximately 2.5 times the continent’s annual GDP. But the continent captures only a fraction of the value embedded in its resources. “The binding constraint is transformation, not geology,” the report states.
The key challenge lies in converting mineral resources into productive assets, infrastructure, industrial capacity, regional value chains and competitive manufacturing platforms. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s manganese refining and rare earth processing, and has a monopoly on the production of graphite for batteries.
Similar concentrations are found in aerospace and defense supply chains, where minerals such as chromium, graphite, rare earths, and tungsten are highly concentrated. As nuclear power returns to energy security discussions, uranium is also regaining strategic relevance.
In this context, Africa’s non-aligned location and mineral diversity represent what the report calls a “real strategic advantage.”
However, it warns against indiscriminate insertion into global value chains. “The aim is not to incorporate Africa everywhere, but to locate Africa where supply chains are most concentrated and where diversification greatly enhances resilience,” the analysis says.
For example, while African manganese smelters compete in a diversifying global market, South Africa’s only manganese smelter (one of only three outside China) has strategic value because it provides a reliable non-Chinese alternative at a key checkpoint.
The report argues that while Africa continues to export raw minerals at low prices, it imports high-value finished products made from the same resources, effectively paying twice its own wealth. Each country accounts for only a small portion of the value chain, as it bears the logistics costs of exporting ore and absorbs additional transport costs, insurance premiums and value-added margins when importing processed goods.
The three conditions of mineral resources themselves, reliable infrastructure (particularly electricity and transport), and strong market demand rarely coexist within African economies. As a result, even commercially viable processing projects are often stalled due to unreliable electricity, weak transport links, and fragmented domestic markets.
Still, the potential benefits of processing are significant. The $2.8 trillion of iron ore in Africa’s mine gates could be converted into $25.4 trillion of steel. Similarly, the $874 billion bauxite expands to $5.2 trillion as alumina and up to $15.4 trillion when smelted into aluminum.
The report points to early signs of relocation. Angola is planning Africa’s first rare earth refinery. Mozambique has entered the largest natural graphite and anode supply chain outside China. Battery-grade manganese sulphate projects are underway in South Africa and Botswana.
Uranium production has resumed in Namibia (2024) and Malawi (2025). These developments signal a gradual transition from pure extraction to selective integration into strategic supply chain segments.
But isolated projects alone are not enough, the report warns. Africa’s minerals strategy needs to evolve into an infrastructure-supported, regionally integrated and policy-aligned platform. Geological data systems remain fragmented and outdated in many countries, limiting exploration and investment.
The report urges African governments to treat geological data as strategic infrastructure and build modern, connected systems. “Africa’s minerals story has been too narrowly framed by fragmented data, an upstream-only lens, and priorities set primarily outside the continent,” said Samaira Zubair, president and chief executive officer of AFC.
“This report is a deliberate effort to reshape Africa’s minerals sector through an African lens, with a focus on infrastructure, mineral beneficiation and domestic demand.”Africa’s development priorities go beyond a narrow list of energy transition minerals.
Rapid urbanization and increased demand for electricity, construction materials, fertilizers, clean energy technologies, and automobiles will drive significant future mineral demand. However, the domestic market is often too small to sustain a large-scale processing industry on its own.
Only through regional demand aggregation, the report argues, Africa can build a competitive mineral processing industry. The report cites examples such as Morocco’s phosphate sector, North Africa’s steel industry and the Copperbelt’s copper industry, where infrastructure, scale and stable demand supported success.
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