Chido Munyati|Published 28 minutes ago
As global supply chains reroute under geopolitical pressures, Africa’s best shield – and greatest opportunity – is a fully integrated continental market.
The world trading system is undergoing the most profound upheaval since the creation of the World Trade Organization. Tariff shocks, competing industrial policies, and geopolitical conflicts have upended decades of predictable trade flows. But amidst this turmoil, Africa has emerged as a notable outlier, becoming the world’s fastest-growing trading region.
According to DHL Global Connectedness 2025 trackerSub-Saharan Africa’s trade in goods increased by 9.6% in the first half of 2025, more than any other region. Major exporting countries are also reconfiguring their supply chains to favor Africa. China increased exports to the continent by 25 percent, directing more value to African markets than to Europe, India or Latin America. African consumers and businesses are becoming central to the new global demand map.
However, this recent strength masks deeper structural weaknesses. Africa remains dangerously under-integrated internally. Intra-African trade accounts for only 15 percent of the continent’s total trade, far lower than Asia’s 59 percent and Europe’s 68 percent. Even at its peak in the mid-2010s, Africa’s share remained at 21%. Several factors contribute to the low share of intra-African trade, including lack of infrastructure, trade policies, political instability, and historical trade patterns. The continent’s economy remains highly dependent on external markets, the conditions of which access can change abruptly with foreign policy cycles.
The expiration in September 2025 of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act, which provided eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market for more than 1,800 products, is a reminder of this vulnerability. While incentives may be well-intentioned, they are inherently time-limited and subject to political renewal processes. For African exporters making long-term investment decisions, such uncertainty is destabilizing. As the old rules-based trade order crumbles, Africa needs to build its own stability through a coherent continent-wide market controlled by Africa.
This obligation is only heightened by the transition to a more transactional global economy, which further increases the risk of Africa’s fragmentation. Home to nearly one-fifth of the world’s population, the continent accounts for only about 5 percent of global GDP and has limited influence over major powers with aggressive trade and industrial policies. Africa cannot compete with weight alone. We need to deepen intercontinental collaboration and build resilience.
Accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is the clearest path for the continent to build this scale and resilience. Since its entry into force in 2021, the AfCFTA has made progress with protocols and pilot trading arrangements, but integration remains slow. The challenge now is to translate political commitment into practical implementation.
However, there are encouraging signs that Africa’s integration story is turning a corner. Under the Forum Friends of AfCFTA initiative, the AfCFTA Secretariat, IOTA Foundation, World Economic Forum and Tony Blair Institute were recently launched. adapt — African digital assets and trade platform. ADAPT provides the digital backbone necessary for modern continental trade, including interoperable digital identities, verifiable trade documents, reliable data flows, and real-time cross-border payments. Once fully expanded, Double intra-African trade by 2035 Delivering more than US$70 billion in annual value.
A similar logic applies to industrialization. Africa’s mineral resources are often seen as having an export advantage, but their great potential lies in anchoring regional value chains. But African economies capture only a fraction of their final value, as most ore leaves the continent unprocessed, curtailing intra-African trade and requiring the re-importation of expensive refined products. world economic forum analysis This means that although southern Africa holds nearly 30 percent of the world’s significant mineral reserves, it attracts less than 10 percent of exploration spending. Without substantial regional processing capacity for everything from cathode copper and cobalt sulfate to manganese alloys and battery-compatible materials, Africa will continue to miss out on domestic value creation.
But the continent is also beginning to show what meaningful change looks like. The expansion of the Dangote refinery, which will rival the world’s largest refineries, reflects the continent’s new ambitions for energy security and industrial independence. In Guinea, the long-awaited Simandou project is finally making progress, creating the prospect of a shared mining and rail corridor that could support heavy industry in West Africa. And the Lobito Corridor, connecting Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Zambia to Atlantic ports, is emerging as an innovative logistics backbone that integrates mineral and processing zones and export hubs.
This momentum is also reflected in Africa Finance Corporation’s ‘State of Africa’s Infrastructure’. report 2025 emphasizes both progress and urgency. The continent has up to $4 trillion in domestic savings, much of which remains in short-term means rather than productive investment. Although power generation will expand by only 6.5 GW in 2024, far below what is needed to support industrialization, more than 7,000 km of railways have been built or planned to connect production zones with trade corridors. The report also highlights that digital infrastructure is the basis of competitiveness and highlights why platforms like ADAPT must be treated as strategic assets for the continent. Africa has a vision and early momentum. What we need now is scale and connectivity to connect corridors to value chains and connect capital to innovative projects.
To transform the AfCFTA from a promising blueprint into a functioning continental market, Africa needs an accelerated 2025-2027 agenda that prioritizes implementation over aspirations. of guided trade initiatives The trade, which currently operates in 17 countries, should become the default mode of continental trade, with completed tariff schedules, harmonized customs procedures and digitized rules of origin reducing friction at borders.
At the same time, the AfCFTA digital trade protocol needs to move from negotiation to operation. Interoperable payments, mutual recognition of digital identities, and federated data frameworks will enable companies to scale up across services, logistics, fintech, and the creative economy.
These foundations will enable the next stage, the creation of regional value chains in minerals, agriculture and manufacturing, supported by cross-border investments and coordinated transport corridors. Achieving this agenda will ultimately depend on finances.
A dedicated AfCFTA trade infrastructure facility, supported by multilateral development banks, regional DFIs, sovereign wealth funds, and private capital, could mobilize needed investment in ports, rail, power, and digital systems on a continental scale.
With the foundation in place, Africa needs a continent-wide implementation sprint. The AfCFTA is not a long-term aspiration, but the strongest vehicle for the continent’s resilience, industrialization and shared prosperity.
Africa must seize the moment as the global trading system is restructured. Otherwise, you have to risk watching the moment pass.
Chido Munyati, Head of Africa and member of the World Economic Forum Executive Committee.
*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of Independent Media. IOL.
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