As the world approaches 2026, uncertainty is a defining feature of the global landscape. Unlike previous eras, today’s unpredictability comes not only from cyclical economic fluctuations and traditional political conflicts, but also from a combination of technological disruption, shifting geopolitical alliances, and unexpected crises that redefine the global landscape. These developments, often referred to as “black swan” events, are highly unlikely but have disproportionate consequences that reshape economies, political structures, and international norms in ways that are difficult to predict.
Two interrelated uncertainties will shape the next phase of global affairs. First, the geopolitical situation remains unstable and may even worsen. Although the war in Ukraine continues to attract international attention, instability extends far beyond Eastern Europe. In the Middle East, the effects of the October 7, 2023 conflict between Israel and Hamas continue to linger, increasing tensions in the region and testing the ability of world powers to maintain stability. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed states with unpredictable leadership, such as North Korea, pose a continuing risk, and fragile states in Africa and Asia remain vulnerable to internal and cross-border conflicts.
The second significant uncertainty lies in the trajectory of global economic growth. After the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has entered a period of fragile recovery, driven largely by technological innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI). AI is rapidly transforming productivity, labor markets, and industrial structures. However, reliance on technology-driven growth models creates vulnerabilities. Potential market bubbles, uneven wealth creation, and systemic shocks that could ripple throughout the global financial system. Whether this AI-driven expansion can be sustained amidst geopolitical turmoil is one of the defining questions of the next decade.
Considering the twin uncertainties of geopolitics and economic performance, four broad scenarios emerge for the world beyond 2025. The first, a “resilient world,” combines continued economic growth with a very challenging geopolitical environment. The second, “peace and prosperity,” imagines both strong growth and a decline in geopolitical tensions. The third scenario, “global stagnation,” combines a slowdown in economic activity with a easing of geopolitical pressures. Finally, the “hard times” scenario envisions a simultaneous economic slowdown and increased geopolitical instability.
In reality, elements of all four scenarios could coexist, but analysts suggest a resilient world and troubled times are the most plausible. Continued global geopolitical instability makes a more optimistic “peace and prosperity” scenario relatively unlikely. Unlike the post-pandemic era of 1918, which ushered in the “Roaring Twenties” of economic and cultural expansion, the post-COVID-19 era may be remembered by historians as the “Warring Twenties,” defined by ongoing conflict and strategic uncertainty.
The resilient world scenario reflects cautious optimism. Although growth remains uneven, it is being led by emerging economies such as India and some Asian markets, which benefit from technological investment and demographic advantages. International organizations have emphasized the need for concerted policy action to maintain stability. For example, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted that a balanced and adaptive global economy remains achievable and urged countries to strengthen domestic economic resilience. But even in this scenario, economic gains are fragile, and disparities between developed and emerging markets could exacerbate social and political tensions.
AI plays a central role in this potential growth. Some estimates suggest that up to 40% of US GDP growth in recent years has been linked to AI-related investments and applications. This increased production during a period marked by low growth rates since the 1960s. However, reliance on AI poses the risk of a focal technology-driven bubble, where a sudden loss of confidence or market correction could cause widespread economic shocks. Moreover, globalization is also slowing down. McKinsey reports that Western investment in China has fallen by about 70 percent since 2022, reflecting both geopolitical frictions and strategic retrenchment.
But the scenario of troubled times is a stark warning. It evokes historical parallels with Russia’s “Troublesome Times” (1584-1613), a time of political turmoil, famine, and foreign intervention. In today’s context, this scenario could result from a combination of worsening regional conflicts, the weakness of international institutions, and a sudden downturn in technology-driven economies. The United States, with its increasing reliance on AI investments, could face a particularly severe crisis, potentially destabilizing not only its domestic institutions but also its ability to project global power.
Further complicating matters are unprecedented levels of global debt. The IMF predicts that global debt could average close to 100% of GDP by the end of the decade. In such a situation, governments may lack the fiscal flexibility to counter major economic downturns, exacerbating vulnerabilities and increasing the likelihood of protectionist and beggar-thy-neighbor policies. Such a situation could accelerate deglobalization, reduce trade flows, increase economic competition between great powers, and increase the likelihood of geopolitical conflict.
The deterioration of the global environment could intensify regional conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. If domestic economic pressures and political instability limit foreign policy options, great powers may have less incentive to contain these conflicts. In such a scenario, local conflicts could develop into broader crises, with significant implications for international security.
Despite these challenges, the interaction between economic growth and geopolitics also presents opportunities. Advances in AI and other technologies may provide new tools for conflict management, early warning systems, and global governance solutions. By leveraging innovation and demographic trends, emerging economies have the potential to sustain global growth amid geopolitical turmoil. The key is the ability of states and international organizations to balance innovation-driven economic expansion with effective conflict mitigation strategies.
After all, the next decade will require strategic foresight and adaptability. Policymakers need to prepare for multiple simultaneous disruptions, ranging from financial shocks to regional wars. Companies and investors need to plan for the risk of market disruption due to uneven growth and technological change. Citizens and civil society actors will also need to navigate an environment that presents significant systemic risks as well as opportunities for prosperity.
What characterizes 2026 and beyond is uncertainty itself. While a resilient world provides a framework for cautious optimism, the prospect of difficult times is a solemn reminder that even small miscalculations can have cascading effects. Strategic flexibility, international cooperation, and prudent risk management will be essential to weathering a period where geopolitical instability and economic turmoil are likely to coexist.
In conclusion, we can say that the post-pandemic era is not simply a continuation of pre-2020 trends, but a period of transformation defined by both technological promise and geopolitical vulnerability. How the world responds to these two challenges will determine whether this decade will be one of resilient adaptation or one of compounding crises. It is clear that there is an urgent need for governments, institutions and citizens alike to move beyond seeking certainty and instead anticipate the unexpected, build resilience and manage complexity. In an era of widespread black swan events, preparedness may be the most valuable currency of all.
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Blitz special contributor MA Hossain is a political and defense analyst. He is a regular contributor to local and international newspapers.
