The level of armed conflict waxes and wanes. In 2017, levels of deadly violence in Africa decreased significantly compared to the immediate post-Cold War period. This comes despite recent increases in terrorism-related deaths in major countries such as Nigeria and Somalia. Even the number of deaths from terrorism has decreased since 2015.
However, social unrest, unrest and protests continue to increase on the continent. This is driven by development, urbanization and modernization, all of which are necessarily destructive. Development has been driven by the fact that since 1994, Africa has experienced the longest period of sustained growth since decolonization in the 60s.
Another major factor causing unrest is the fact that democracy is expanding on the continent. Pressure on authoritarian states is increasing. We should therefore not be surprised by the prevalence of violence in countries from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to Burundi to Uganda. And even in countries run by small elites and families, such as Gabon, Cameroon, and Equatorial Guinea.
In the long run, only rapid and inclusive economic growth combined with good governance can reduce instability in Africa.
But how can we achieve this? What is needed is a combination of sound economic policies, attacks on corruption and theft by ruling elites, deepening of democracy, and a rethinking of our approach to the threat of terrorism.
economics
Given current population growth, Africa needs average economic growth rates of more than 7% per year for several decades to reduce poverty and increase average income levels. This is unlikely. Current projections estimate the average growth rate to be about half that.
Perhaps more importantly, Africa needs to find a way to reap the demographic benefits. It is about reducing the number of dependents, mainly children, compared to the working age (15 to 65 years). Traditionally, this is best achieved through improving women’s education, but providing access to water, sanitation and contraceptives can play a major role. This is reflected in our recent research into the future of Ethiopia, which is seeing a faster decline in fertility than other countries at a similar level of development.
Africa also needs to put public sector employment at the center of government policy. This will require much higher levels of foreign investment and engagement, as well as the diversification of African economies.
When it comes to investment and development aid, the Institute for Security Studies found that middle-income countries have made progress in attracting foreign direct investment, while poorer countries remain dependent on aid.
Although aid is becoming obsolete in favor of measures that involve the private sector, aid remains important for low-income countries. This will enable governments to provide more services than ever before, such as water, sanitation, and education. These investments in human capital development have significant returns and long-term positive effects.
Another focus should be on supporting the rule of law and achieving effective taxation. Basics such as national identification systems, effective border controls, and functioning criminal justice systems are often lacking.
Democracy, extremism and security responses
Many people across a wide range of countries on the continent are increasingly demanding more democracy. Despite many setbacks, democracy continues to advance year after year.
It is difficult to do two things at the same time: building government capacity and responding to demands for democracy. In a continent that has experienced decades of dictatorship and misgovernment, marginalization, lack of voice and lack of accountability are often at the heart of instability.
Regional organizations (such as the Southern African Development Community and the Central African Economic and Monetary Community) need to take responsible governance seriously.
Unless this happens, there is a real danger that the pull of extremist groups will escalate.
Responsible governance is perhaps the most important element in countering violent extremism, and reforms should extend to the security sector as well. The continent’s military, policy, military police and information systems generally operate with impunity and impunity, and are often the cause of many problems. Instead of protecting and serving, they kill, pillage, and rape.
Both ISS and UNDP concluded that actions by security forces, such as the killing or arrest of a family member, are often the tipping point that triggers a final decision to join an extremist group.
Furthermore, Africa appears to support the US approach to the war on terror, which relies on military force. Indeed, terrorism requires an intelligence, prosecution and rule of law approach. African countries would be well advised to return to intelligence and police responses to terrorism rather than military responses.
Radicalization is also fueled by corruption, theft by ruling elites, and tax havens. Africa needs to work with the rest of the world to end tax havens, tax avoidance and money laundering.
fight for a rules-based world
African countries need to step up their efforts toward a rules-based world, including reforming the United Nations Security Council, the apex of global security governance.
But the continent needs to stop hiding behind the Ezulwini agreement, the common position taken by African countries on UN reform, and stop claiming two permanent and five non-permanent seats for Africa with veto power, and start thinking outside the box.
Full-scale reform is possible, but it would require a different approach, such as abolishing the veto and permanent membership.
