In the time it takes to make your morning coffee, the economic reality of a trader in Nairobi or a fintech founder in Lagos may have fundamentally changed.
In developed Western countries, consumer sentiment moves like a slow tanker, varying in intensity from quarter to quarter. Sentiment is accelerating rapidly in Africa’s fast-growing markets. Three volatile factors are driving the rapid fluctuations: currency fluctuations, sudden policy shifts, and the connectedness of young people who process information at the speed of scrolling on TikTok.
Multinational corporations and investors have been building their “Africa strategies” for years on the basis of archival data. It could be the 2006 census, a consumer survey published four years ago, or a “deep” report commissioned 18 months before the rebrand. Now these documents are not just outdated; they are dangerous. In a market defined by rapid fluctuations, opinions from three months ago may no longer be data.
The concept of “static data” has entered a paradoxical era. Consider the tectonic shifts in the economy in 2023 and 2024. When Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia faced rapidly depreciating currencies and rising inflation, consumers’ spending habits didn’t just evolve. The flip was overnight.
A consumer survey conducted in Lagos in May 2023 would have suggested a rapidly growing middle class ready to splurge on luxury FMCG products. By July 2023, with the removal of fuel subsidy and the fluctuation of the naira, the middle class was aggressively “bargaining” on sachet-sized essentials and generic brands.
High inflation and shrinking disposable income are changing consumer habits so quickly that traditional market research cycles can’t keep up.
If you were a brand manager and green-lighted marketing spend for Q3 based on a May 2022 survey, you might have wasted capital. You were talking to a consumer that no longer exists.
At Curation AI, we check this delta daily. There’s a big difference between archived and live conversations.
Archives show what people thought when asked specific questions in a controlled environment. Live conversations, the digital footprint of millions of Africans on social media, payment platforms, and community forums, tell us what they’re feeling right now.
In busy markets like Onitsha and digital hubs like Kigali, sentiment changes quickly. A viral tweet about international currency fluctuations or bank downtime can trigger mass capital movements or boycotts before traditional researchers can create a survey.
The banking sector provides a sobering example. Thales Group (2024) points out that the banking industry is one of the most trusted digital sectors (44% trust), but that trust is incredibly fragile. A “real-time consistency” standard is maintained.
If a banking app goes down during a period of high inflation when every naira counts, the “trust” recorded in quarterly surveys disappears within minutes. Without real-time sentiment tracking, banks remain unaware of the reputational damage storm until they can already see the smoke coming from the boardroom.
The most common failure we see among global investors is the “pan-African” lens, or the idea that trends in Accra are proxies for trends in Addis Ababa.
Relying on old data leads to generalization. You miss the nuances of local volatility. Older data flattens the African continent into a monolith. But real-time data highlights frictions. This shows exactly where Kenyan consumers’ dissatisfaction with the fiscal bill diverges from Ethiopian consumers’ reactions to the peace talks.
Opponents of real-time intelligence often argue that “long-term trends” are more important than “short-term noise” and that reacting to hourly sentiment destabilizes strategies.
That’s not true. In Africa, this general trend is often referred to as “noise.” Short-term shocks are what determine long-term survival. You cannot build a bridge by ignoring changes in the flow of the river below. Understanding the “now” is the only way to move on to the “next”.
The challenge for today’s leaders is only exacerbated by a lack of information points. The lack of situational speed started. We need more data points, but we also need faster curation.
Policymakers, regulators, and CEOs must stop asking, “What’s in the report?” And you start asking, “What is the market saying at the moment?”
For business leaders: Step away from quarterly sentiment reports. Invest in a “live intelligence” stack that integrates social listening and economic indicators.
For investors: We value agility over past performance. A company’s ability to pivot based on real-time feedback is a better predictor of success than the 2022 income statement.
For regulators: Recognize that public trust is a living variable. Policies must be communicated and adjusted at the same speed as the public consumes information.
Gone are the days of “experts” relying on dusty slides. The new experts are those who can participate in live streams of African commerce and culture and extract the signal from the noise in real time.
Africa is not a place where you can make a strategy and check it six months later. It is a dynamic ecosystem that prioritizes digital technology by penalizing stagnation and rewarding responsiveness. If you’re making decisions based on old opinions, you’re remembering. And in the world’s fastest market, nostalgia is a luxury no one can afford.
Data has already been modified. Do you have it?
Kayode Aladesuyi is the CEO of Curation AI.
