Global airlines have canceled around 40,000 flights since the outbreak of the Gulf War, while two of the world’s biggest airport hubs, Dubai and Doha, have moved to partial operations, with both hubs handling only a limited number of flights amid widespread disruption in the region. While this had an unprecedented impact on global travel, it also quickly exposed major shortcomings and opportunities for Africa’s mining economy. These are continued dependence on external trade corridors and a new shift towards downstream processing.
As air cargo routes tighten, the crisis highlights why a growing number of African producers are moving to ban the export of raw minerals and keep more value at home. The question now is whether these policies not only promote industrialization but actually help protect the mining economy from future geopolitical and trade shocks.
War strains Africa’s mineral corridors
With airspace strictly controlled and airports closed, trade transport through these corridors has virtually come to a standstill. This has a major impact on African mining exporters. This is because while bulk goods are moved by sea, high-value cargo such as bullion, rough diamonds, and some specialty minerals are often moved by air to ensure safety and speed.
“There is confusion around the export of primary goods, with countries like Ghana and Zimbabwe unable to fly their cargo to Dubai,” Robert Besseling, founder and chief executive of Pangea Risk, explained at a conference in Cape Town this week.
Ghana sent about 72% of its small-scale gold exports worth 103,804 kg to the UAE in 2025 and 25% to India. This airspace closure exposes its vulnerability to global trade disruptions. With exports disrupted, many producers are currently facing overstocks.
“In Botswana, the government is holding double the licensed level of diamonds because they cannot be shipped to the United Arab Emirates. This is the direct impact we are seeing. Many producers are unable to benefit from higher (commodity) prices because they are unable to transport their cargo,” Besseling added.
This is precisely why promoting Africa’s downstream processes has taken on new urgency, and why many countries are turning to policies to advance it.
Export bans are becoming the policy tool of choice
Africa has seen a wave of export bans on raw minerals in recent years as countries seek to preserve greater value domestically. In February 2026, Zimbabwe, Africa’s largest lithium producer, immediately suspended all exports of raw minerals, bringing forward measures previously expected to take place in 2027. The ban covers a range of products including lithium, gold, platinum group metals and chromium ore, as well as minerals already in transit. While the decision is an important step towards strengthening on-site treatment, it has also faced criticism as many downstream facilities are still under development.
Tanzania and Namibia announced similar export bans in 2023, citing efforts to strengthen domestic value chains and support economic growth. Namibia is a major producer of cobalt, manganese, graphite and rare earth elements, and the ban is aimed at encouraging local processing in these sectors. Tanzania aims to maximize added value across the lithium sector. The country has directed mining companies to set up refining facilities in the country alongside their respective operations.
Will these bans really cushion future shocks?
While the export ban on African raw minerals will not provide immediate relief to exporters, it could theoretically help cushion future global shocks. By preserving domestic values, Africa will be less exposed to the disruptions currently facing the market, such as flight cancellations in Dubai, soaring insurance premiums in the Gulf and overseas refinery bottlenecks. But in reality, these prohibitions alone are not enough.
Analysts warn that it will only be effective if countries have reliable electricity, financing, regulatory clarity and a realistic transition period. Otherwise, these bans risk creating new challenges of increased stockpiling and investor dissatisfaction. The Gulf War has made the case for benevolence stronger than ever, but the more difficult question is whether a ban on African live exports will be backed by the infrastructure and capital needed to truly make Africa a nation.
