As Africa looks to become the world’s fastest growing aviation market, policymakers and industry leaders are focusing on the central challenge of how to translate rising demand into sustainable connectivity, competitiveness and financial viability.
This question was at the heart of deliberations at the two-day Aviation, Capital and Connectivity Forum held in Nairobi on 25-26 February 2026, by the African Development Bank Group in partnership with the African Aviation Association (AFRAA).
Despite strong demand fundamentals, Africa’s aviation sector continues to face structural constraints, including high costs of capital, a fragmented regulatory regime, infrastructure gaps and limited access to long-term financing. To address these challenges, the Bank is promoting the Integrated Aviation Transformation Program (IATP), a continent-wide platform designed to modernize the aviation ecosystem and mobilize private, institutional, and concessional capital at scale. The program aims to coordinate policy reforms, innovative financing instruments and project implementation within a single bankable framework.
The forum brought together airline executives, transport ministers, regulators, investors, manufacturers, and development partners to consider how IATP can accelerate coordinated delivery across the sector. Participants emphasized the role of aviation as a strategic enabler of regional integration, trade facilitation, tourism and economic diversification.
Opening the forum, Mike Sarawu, Director of Infrastructure and Urban Development at the World Bank, said Africa’s aviation demand outlook is among the strongest globally, but supply-side capacity and investment readiness lag. He said IATP aims to de-risk preferred investments, support early test transactions and restore confidence among commercial and institutional investors.
From an industry perspective, AFRAA Secretary General Abderrahmane Berthe highlighted the magnitude of the opportunity and the imbalances facing the continent. “Africa accounts for nearly 18% of the world’s population, but accounts for less than 3% of global air traffic, reflecting structural and regulatory barriers rather than weak demand,” he said.
A speech delivered on behalf of Kenya Airways described Africa as the biggest structural aviation opportunity of the 21st century. Over the next two decades, one in four of the world’s new air travelers is expected to depart from Africa, driven by rapid urbanization, a growing middle-income population and a younger demographic.
However, the industry’s financial performance remains constrained. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), net profit margins for African airlines are expected to be just 1% to 2%, below the global average forecast of 3.9% for 2026. High fuel costs, heavy taxes, incomplete liberalization and limited hub infrastructure continue to undermine profitability.
Connectivity remains a critical bottleneck. Intra-African traffic only accounts for about a quarter of all air travel, with many passengers requiring connections outside the continent. Participants emphasized that the full implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market is essential to achieve efficient connectivity between the continents.
The keynote address, delivered by Eric Ntagengerwa, Director of Transport and Mobility at the African Union Commission (AUC), on behalf of Infrastructure and Energy Commissioner Lerato Dorothy Mataboge, stated that aviation reform is essential for sovereignty, integration and competitiveness. He said the Single African Air Transport Market has been identified as an African Union theme for 2027.
The two-day discussion focused on practical offerings, including strengthening airline bankability, advancing climate-smart aviation, developing cargo and logistics, building skills, and introducing innovative risk-sharing mechanisms under the IATP. The experiences of Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia have shown how continental goals can be translated into tailored national reforms and short-term investment opportunities.
Mr. Samuel Obafemi Bajomo, Senior Adviser to the Nigerian Ministry of Aviation, stressed that a forward-looking and pro-investment policy framework is essential to strengthen connectivity, unlock Africa’s growth potential and position aviation as a catalyst for trade, tourism and shared prosperity.
The forum ended with a clear message that Africa’s aviation demand is real, accelerating and irreversible. The priority now is to align policy, capital and infrastructure to ensure aviation becomes an enduring driver of inclusive growth and regional integration across the continent.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Development Bank Group (AfDB).
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