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As Zambia accelerates its energy transition, investors and project developers are increasingly questioning whether the country could face grid constraints similar to those experienced in South Africa as renewable energy capacity increases. The short answer is that Zambia’s current electricity grid is still not sufficient to support its ambitious growth goals, but a large-scale, coordinated expansion program is already underway to fill the gap, with the private sector playing an increasingly active role.
As of early 2026, the Zambian government is pursuing a power generation target of 10,000 MW by 2030. This strategy is based on long-term energy security and economic resilience, with a clear focus on diversifying away from over-reliance on hydropower. Recent climate change and drought conditions have highlighted the risks of hydro-based systems and prompted a strong policy push for solar, wind and other renewable technologies.
However, increasing the number of generations alone cannot ensure stability of supply. Zambia’s existing electricity grid infrastructure, which currently spans approximately 12,700 kilometers of transmission lines, was not designed to accommodate rapid expansion of installed capacity up to 10 gigawatts. To address this structural limitation, the government plans to expand the electricity grid to approximately 17,700 kilometers by 2030. The expansion aims to connect new power plants efficiently and ensure that power can be delivered to load centers and industrial customers.
Investments in electricity transmission are included in the country’s integrated resource plan, with approximately US$1.4 billion of the sector’s estimated total demand of US$11.6 billion by 2030 allocated to transmission upgrades. For business stakeholders, this shows that grid strengthening is a core element of the country’s power sector plans, rather than an afterthought. The scale of capital required also creates significant opportunities for engineering, procurement and construction contractors, technology suppliers and long-term infrastructure investors.
Despite these plans, grid bottlenecks are already emerging. By late 2025, certain corridor constraints will limit the ability to evacuate power from newly commissioned renewable projects to demand centers, according to the report. This challenge mirrors early integration issues seen in other rapidly growing power markets and highlights the importance of synchronized development between generation and transmission assets.
In response, the private sector is not passively waiting for public infrastructure to be deployed. Independent power producers and large commercial and industrial offtakers are increasingly incorporating dedicated grid investments, substation upgrades and, in some cases, embedded generation into their project designs. Public-private partnerships and innovative financing structures are also gaining traction as mechanisms to accelerate the delivery of both electricity generation and transmission. A notable example is Canona Power, which announced plans to invest $100 million in a high-voltage transmission line connecting Zambia and Tanzania. The private development project, expected to be completed within about a year, will create the first direct power connection between the two neighboring countries and could be operational much sooner than a major World Bank-financed interconnector scheduled for 2028. The transmission line will run between Mwakibete in southwestern Tanzania and the border town of Nakonde in northeastern Zambia.
Kanona Power’s initiative aims to facilitate regional electricity trading, alleviate supply shortages and improve grid stability in Zambia, particularly in the copper mining sector. Zambia is Africa’s second largest copper producer, with major mining facilities requiring between 50 and 150 megawatts of electricity per site. The transmission line will also increase Zambia’s electricity import capacity, while providing redundancy to the national grid, enhancing energy security and reducing the risk of future disruptions. The project complements the government-led Zambia-Tanzania interconnector and supports the long-term goal of establishing a continuous power corridor linking southern and northern Africa from Cape Town to Cairo.
Recent projects continue to demonstrate that lessons learned are incorporated into implementation. For example, the 100 MW solar power plant in Chisamba included investments in a dual-circuit 132 kilovolt transmission line and substation expansion to ensure effective integration into the national grid. Such project-level grid upgrades signal a shift to more integrated planning, where network enhancements are integrated into power generation development rather than being deferred.
Regional integration is another pillar of Zambia’s strategy. Zambia aims to become more active in power trading within the region by strengthening interconnectivity and leveraging its participation in the Southern African Power Pool. Strengthening cross-border power transmission capacity provides flexibility to export surplus power during periods of high output and import power during domestic power shortages. For large industrial offtakers and regional utilities, this integration will enhance supply selectivity and reduce systemic risk.
Importantly for stakeholders, Zambia currently faces transmission constraints, but these are recognized at the policy level and are being addressed through systematic investment planning, regulatory support and increased private sector involvement. The feasibility of the 10,000 MW target will largely depend on the pace and coordination of high-voltage transmission development in parallel with the introduction of renewable generation. Companies entering the Zambian market therefore need to assess not only project-level fundamentals, but also grid connection timelines, network capacity studies, financing structures, and regional trade trends.
If implemented successfully, Zambia’s parallel investment in generation diversification, transmission expansion and private sector initiatives could position Zambia in one of southern Africa’s most dynamic electricity markets, with expanded opportunities across infrastructure finance, equipment supply, grid technology and cross-border power trading.
Author: Brian Groenendaal
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