Italy’s Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said Rome was evaluating alternative gas volumes from Libya after the ongoing war between the United States, Israel and Iran put five Qatari shipments at risk. The Strait of Hormuz, a choke point through which 20% of the world’s LNG passes, is effectively closed to maritime traffic, with major LNG exporters such as Qatar Energy declaring force majeure. Reality reveals harsh truths about global trade. LNG transported by sea is only as safe as the sea routes that transport it.
In this scenario, Africa is once again in the spotlight. Existing pipeline infrastructure connecting Algeria and Libya to European markets makes the continent more than just a backup supplier. A physical and fixed connection to Mediterranean supplies, immune to naval blockades and insulated from rising maritime insurance costs, it is central to Europe’s energy security calculations.
Why North Africa’s pipeline corridor suddenly looks smart
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had an unprecedented impact on global markets. Gulf producers have cut production and Brent and LNG prices are soaring. Gulf shipping war risk insurance premiums have soared by more than 1,000% in some cases, with other insurers canceling coverage entirely, Reuters reports. Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi, Qatar’s Minister of Energy Affairs and CEO of Qatar Energy, also warned that if the war continues, a wider range of Gulf exporters could be forced to suspend exports within days, further escalating the energy crisis.
This is precisely where the North African pipeline advantage becomes strategic. The 11 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y) GreenStream pipeline directly connects Libya to Italy, the 32.7 bcm/y TransMed connects Algerian gas to Italy, and the MedGas pipeline connects Algeria to Spain. These are fixed links, already integrated into the European import structure, and are structurally less exposed to Gulf naval disruption than LNG cargoes sailing through Hormuz. The next question is whether Algeria and Libya can translate their structural advantages into increased production and exports.
Upstream momentum is building across Libya
Even before the US-Israel-Iran war broke out, Libya announced plans to increase gas production to 1 billion standard cubic feet per day over the next five years, with the aim of increasing exports to Europe. The country recently completed its 2025 licensing round, signed 25-year agreements with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips to achieve this goal, and mobilized more than $20 billion in foreign investment.
Domestic production capacity will be further strengthened through future projects. The Melita Oil and Gas-led Structure A&E development is on track for completion in 2027 (750 mmscf/d). The Eni and NOC-led Bahr Essalam compression expansion is scheduled for Q1 2026 (100 mmscf/d). Meanwhile, the Zarraf-led Al Ashan project is moving rapidly towards implementation (140mmscf/d). These developments will solidify Libya’s position as Europe’s leading supplier.
Algeria aims for additional production capacity
Algeria is showing similar momentum. The National Hydrocarbon Resources Evaluation Agency has started the nomination process for the next licensing round, scheduled for the first half of 2026, with 24 blocks on offer. This comes as the country invests $60 billion in energy projects from 2025 to 2029 and seeks to expand production and export capacity. Approximately 80% of this investment will be allocated to the oil and gas sector. Large-scale projects are also progressing, with the Hassi Rumelle gas field on track for a 2027 start-up (188 mmscf/d).
Besides upstream projects, Algeria also plans to export additional volumes using TransMed and Medgaz. The country is scheduled to begin construction in 2026 on the long-planned Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, which is designed to supply 30 bcm per year from Nigeria to Algeria and to European markets. The pipeline will connect to existing export corridors, expanding Africa not just as a backup supplier but as a long-term corridor for imports from Europe.
None of these upstream operations will save Europe today, but they do prove the North African system to be strategically durable. Existing pipelines already give Europe a strategic hedge, and the next wave of exploration could make that hedge even bigger. In a world where energy security is once again measured not only by price but also by geography, can Europe really afford to leave the North African gas corridor underutilized?
