The South African Department of Minerals and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) has warned the public to prepare for a rise in pump prices in April 2026, even though fuel shortages are unlikely. The hike is expected after oil prices have risen 50% since January 2026, reaching $119 last week, before falling to $86.92 on Wednesday and rising to $98 on Thursday, due to the ongoing war between the United States, Israel and Iran.
South Africa, which relies on imports for 75% of its oil, finds itself increasingly vulnerable. Jet A1 fuel prices alone have risen 70% in a week, and the country’s largest airline, Flysafair, has introduced temporary surcharges in response. The recent conflict not only highlights the country’s vulnerability to global price and supply shocks, but also demonstrates the strategic importance of pursuing domestic exploration and production campaigns. The question now is whether South Africa is finally putting in place the policy and regulatory conditions to make that happen.
Rising prices show how dangerous South Africa is
In South Africa, fuel prices are scheduled to rise in April 2026, following a small increase in March 2026. Petrol rose by R0.20 and diesel by R0.62. According to DMPR, the recent price adjustment can be attributed to increases in global oil prices, international petroleum product prices, and fluctuations in the rand-US dollar exchange rate. With the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of the world’s oil trade, still closed and a continuation of the war looking likely, South Africa is waiting to see if further expansion of its oil trade will occur in the future.
These recent events highlight the country’s vulnerability to global supply chains. South Africa’s two refineries, the NATREF plant and the Astron Energy plant, are both operational, but much of it relies on imports. Although the Astron refinery is currently closed for maintenance, DMPR has reassured the public that the company has secured sufficient fuel imports to meet supply demands during this period. If prices and supply continue to fluctuate, things are very likely to change.
South Africa has resources but not speed.
This is what makes the South African exploration case so urgent. Although the country is import-dependent, it also has some of Africa’s most promising oil and gas resources. The Orange Basin is estimated to hold 30 billion barrels of oil, the Outenika Basin, where Luiperdo and Brupadda were discovered, has more than 1 billion barrels of oil and 3.4 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas, and the onshore Karoo Basin is estimated to have up to 390 tcf of gas. Leading companies such as TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas and Shell are looking to tap into this potential.
The real issue is execution. Exploration has repeatedly encountered court challenges, environmental opposition and bureaucratic hurdles. Litigation over marine impacts and public participation halted the marine program, and a court ruling in 2025 revoked Total Energy’s environmental clearance for Blocks 5/6/7 and returned the company to the evaluation stage. The government itself has acknowledged that legal appeals have delayed the project and deprived the country of the economic benefits that successful exploration would bring. This is a barrier that South Africa needs to address.
Policy direction is beginning to change
Recent policy shifts are aimed at addressing South Africa’s exploration challenges. The Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act (passed in 2024 and updated in 2026) aims to create an enabling environment for faster exploration and production through consolidated oil interests, licensing rounds, strategic inventory provisions, and a clearer role for state participation.
In parallel, DMPR is finalizing the Gas Master Plan as a long-term policy and investment framework for this sector. Technical work was completed in 2025. Regarding shale, South Africa lifted a long-standing moratorium on shale gas development in October 2025, paving the way for new exploration.
These policy shifts are essential because every external oil shock is a reminder of what this country has yet to build. While increasing domestic oil and gas would not eliminate global price risks, it could reduce import dependence, strengthen energy resilience and give countries more control over the future of their own supplies.
