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    You are at:Home»More»Energy Capital Power»$10 billion at stake: AfCFTA’s high-stakes industrial gamble
    Energy Capital Power

    $10 billion at stake: AfCFTA’s high-stakes industrial gamble

    Xsum NewsBy Xsum NewsFebruary 26, 2026No Comments5 Mins Read2 Views
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    AfCFTA partners with AGRA to reduce non-tariff barriers and facilitate trade.
    PAPSS links 150 banks and saves $5 billion. The AfCFTA Fund, Digital Protocol and Battery Corridor will foster industrial integration.
    54 countries have joined AfCFTA. Cut tariffs by 90%, set rules at 92.4%, and increase intra-African trade to 50% by 2035.

    At the 39th African Union Summit held in Addis Ababa this month, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat entered into a major partnership with the African Green Revolution Alliance (AGRA) to reduce non-tariff barriers, facilitate intra-African food trade and strengthen regional food security. This milestone, a decisive move towards practical farm-to-market integration under the AfCFTA framework, follows the approval in February of vehicle regulations requiring at least 40% African origin, a milestone aimed at opening up trade in vehicles and parts across the continent on preferential terms.

    This development suggests that the AfCFTA is entering what officials call a disciplined “enforcement phase.” With 49 ratified, tariffs phased down, and digital trade rules advanced, the question now is whether Africa can be transformed from a raw materials exporter to an integrated industrial bloc.

    Digital rails, payment pipes and green value chains

    Beyond tariffs, 2026 will be a year of institutional consolidation, with the Accra-headquartered Pan African Payments System (PAPSS) now connecting more than 150 commercial banks. PAPSS therefore enables cross-border transactions in local currencies, potentially saving around $5 billion in transaction costs annually across the continent. The $10 billion AfCFTA Adjustment Fund, managed by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), cushions the loss of customs revenue and funds competitiveness improvements.

    “Afreximbank currently operates in 53 countries in Africa. We want to focus on industries that can create jobs and create capacity development. All our development efforts are focused on helping African countries own their infrastructure, which is a huge mission,” said Afreximbank Executive Vice President Heisem Almahelgui at Africa Energy Week 2024 in Cape Town.

    The Stage 2 Protocol covering investment, competition policy and intellectual property was adopted in February 2023, and the Stage 3 Protocol on Digital Trade and Women and Youth in Trade was adopted in February 2024 and is moving towards ratification. The Digital Trade Protocol aims to harmonize cross-border data flows, cybersecurity rules and digital payments across 1.4 billion people, while maintaining a suspension of tariffs on products sent electronically.

    These regulatory changes are consistent with industrial strategy. The Democratic Republic of Congo-Zambia Battery Corridor aims to move from copper and cobalt mining to precursor production and integrate phosphate from Morocco and graphite from Mozambique. Zimbabwe and Namibia have tightened lithium export controls to encourage domestic processing. To complement this, the African Continental Power System Master Plan links regional power pools and promotes a single electricity market that supports energy-intensive refining and manufacturing clusters.

    From legal frameworks to industrial engines

    As of early 2026, 54 of the 55 African Union member states have signed on to join the AfCFTA, with only Eritrea not yet a member. The agreement currently covers a population of 1.3 billion to 1.4 billion and a total GDP of approximately $3 trillion to $3.4 trillion, making it the world’s largest free trade area by number of participating countries.

    The centerpiece pledge remains the elimination of tariffs on 90% of non-sensitive products. Non-least developed countries are phasing these out over five years, and least developed countries are phasing them out over 10 years. Most countries say no in the fifth year of annual equal cuts, which will be applied retroactively from 2021. Meanwhile, rules of origin have been agreed to in 92.4% of tariff lines, providing the “economic nationality” needed to ensure the creation of added value within Africa.

    Through the Guided Trade Initiative, launched in October 2022, implementation has moved from theory to pilot implementation. By mid-2025, more than 39 countries had participated in various stages. Countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, Rwanda and Tunisia already trade goods such as tea, coffee, batteries and chemicals under AfCFTA preferences. Intra-African trade currently accounts for 15-18% of total trade, but is projected to increase to up to 45-50% over the next decade.

    Execution or trenches?

    A central test remains whether these mechanisms lead to measurable structural changes. Infrastructure bottlenecks, a $100 billion trade finance gap, and persistent non-tariff barriers continue to constrain small businesses. Transport corridors such as the Lobitro route and the North-South route are being improved, while independent economic regulations are being introduced to reduce logistics costs.

    But with 49 ratifications, moves to lower tariffs, nearing completion of rules of origin, and expanding digital and financial infrastructure, the direction is becoming increasingly clear. The AfCFTA is moving from aspiration to construction. With execution discipline in place, the bloc is in a position to not only increase intra-African trade but also anchor regional value chains in automobiles, pharmaceuticals, green minerals and digital services, answering the questions first posed with deliberate and data-backed momentum.

    AfCFTAs billion gamble highstakes industrial stake
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