According to the 2026 Strategic Insights and Intelligence, Military, Defense and Security report on China, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to the UAE and meeting with UAE Ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in March 2026, coinciding with the fallout from a potential Iran war, represents a golden opportunity to reshape the geopolitics of global trade, according to China’s vision. Traditional and vulnerable routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Chinese intelligence and strategic circles see the emergence of a new axis between Addis Ababa and the UAE in the aftermath of a potential Iran war in February 2026 as a key opportunity to reshape influence in the Horn of Africa and the Gulf, and an alternative pillar of stability amid the turmoil plaguing traditional partners in the region. The Chinese intelligence perspective on this axis can be analyzed through the lens of securing trade and energy routes beyond Hormuz, thereby avoiding bottlenecks in oil transportation and global and Chinese supply chains.
Beijing believes that threats to the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq war have made UAE-backed ports in the Horn of Africa (via Ethiopia) an important alternative route for securing China’s energy and material flows. This is consistent with China’s support for Ethiopia’s maritime logistics policy. In January 2026, China reiterated its support for Ethiopia’s maritime access and maritime logistics development. This intersects with Emirati investments in ports in the region, creating a safety net for Chinese interests. China has relied on its strategic partnership with Ethiopia to explore alternative trade routes and corridors, and in January 2026 elevated its relationship with Ethiopia to All-Weather Strategic Cooperation Partnership, China’s highest diplomatic status. This reflects Chinese intelligence’s confidence in the Ethiopian regime’s resilience as a regional ally through coordination with the UAE. Beijing views the UAE as its largest trading partner in the region (with a trade value of around $90 billion) and sees the emirate’s partnership with Ethiopia as a means to further China’s vision of peace and development in the Horn of Africa. Chinese intelligence and military think tanks and circles have analyzed the link between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to the UAE and the timing of his meeting with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, given the Iran war and Washington’s interest in it. China is seeking to exploit a security vacuum in the Horn of Africa, a region particularly sensitive to Chinese interests, by encouraging its ally Abiy Ahmed to visit the UAE to establish a post-Hormuz deal, given ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by Iran. Beijing believes that U.S. involvement in the aftermath of the Iran war has weakened its focus on the Horn of Africa, giving China an opportunity to strengthen its influence as an alternative security and economic partner to secure China’s supply chains, especially as the conflict has heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, China is seriously considering strengthening alternative routes through the Horn of Africa and strengthening ties between Ethiopia and the UAE under Chinese supervision and support to ensure energy and trade flows for both China and the world.
Here, Beijing’s intelligence, strategy and intellectual circles have developed a new strategy called post-Holmes and alternative routes, and China is trying to make it successful behind the scenes and perhaps indirectly by strengthening and supporting the Addis Ababa-Abu Dhabi axis. Here, China is analyzing Abiy Ahmed’s visit to the UAE as a step towards linking UAE-controlled ports in the Horn of Africa, such as Berbera, with Ethiopia’s interior, activating new trade corridors to reach global markets and reducing dependence on threatened straits such as Iran’s Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, from the perspective of Chinese intelligence, this Ethiopia-Emirati axis could strengthen China’s vision for peace and development in the Horn of Africa. China is promoting the Horn of Africa Strategy (originally proposed in 2022) as an alternative to Western and US intervention. The strategy focuses on security through the development of railways, such as the Addis Ababa-Djibouti line, and connections to strategic ports in the region. This will ensure the continuity of China’s supply chains to the region and protect China’s interests and investments through the Belt and Road Initiative.
China also views Abiy Ahmed’s visit to the UAE as an effective tool to counter US and Western influence from China’s military, intelligence and security perspectives. Therefore, the Chinese government is seeking to establish itself as a peace broker in the Horn of Africa through the China Peace and Development Initiative in the Horn of Africa. It seeks to leverage Emirati and Ethiopian investments to establish a South-South cooperation model that circumvents Western and US political conditions. To ensure its success, China is striving to make this (an undeclared trilateral alliance between Ethiopia, UAE, and China) a success. Therefore, by helping bring the UAE and Ethiopia closer together, China aims to create an economic zone at the mouth of the Red Sea and thwart Washington’s attempts to isolate the region or control maritime routes through projects like the IMEC corridor (meaning India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor). The project has been adversely affected by the US and Israel’s war against Iran.
Therefore, the Chinese government aims to counter Western influence and establish an alternative sphere of influence through its relations with Ethiopia and the UAE. Chinese officials see Ethiopia’s rapprochement with the Emirates as a way to reduce dependence on Western and U.S. institutions. China is assisting Ethiopia with advanced technology projects such as a sovereign artificial intelligence model and a transition to the use of Chinese renminbi in debt settlement. Chinese intelligence and military agencies also encourage the diplomatic independence policy adopted by both Ethiopia and the UAE. China values Addis Ababa and Abu Dhabi’s commitment to the “one China” principle and rejection of foreign interference. This is in line with the UAE’s policy to diversify its alliances away from traditional US pressure, especially after the US-Israel war against Iran.
Meanwhile, China faces many security and investment challenges, including concerns about instability. Despite the optimism, a Chinese report warns of miscalculations in the Middle East that could impact huge investments in the region under the Belt and Road Initiative. China has invested more than $13 billion in trade and infrastructure in Ethiopia alone. Therefore, China is trying to bridge the gap with Washington. Chinese intelligence and strategic circles are seeking to exploit Washington’s interest in the implications of the Iran war to deepen military and technological ties with this particular Ethiopian-Emirati axis. This includes supporting China’s full transition to the BeiDou satellite navigation system as a replacement for Western and American GPS navigation systems, which suffered from widespread jamming during the US-Israel war against Iran.
From the analysis so far, we can understand the future of China’s presence in the Horn of Africa in 2026, especially given that China welcomes Abi Ahmed’s visit to the UAE to find alternative routes and corridors for global trade and shipping to address the current challenges, complexities and pressures facing China. This is particularly important as Abiy Ahmed’s visit to the UAE coincided with the start of the 2026 China-Africa Year of People-to-People Exchanges, which strengthens China’s soft power. China is therefore betting that Ethiopia’s stability, strengthened by Emirati support, will protect its massive investments in continental infrastructure, especially in the Horn of Africa, a region of vital importance to Chinese interests.
