The European Union (EU) gas market is once again attracting attention. The new disruptions have highlighted how the EU remains exposed to supply bottlenecks, after three years of a shift away from Russian gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The recent closure of Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG export facility, which handles about 20% of global LNG exports, following an Iranian drone attack has curbed shipments and sent European gas prices soaring, while inventories remain at about 30% of capacity as countries prepare for winter refueling. This unfolded amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and LNG trade passes, further tightening global energy flows.
Although the European Commission insists there is no immediate supply shortage, benchmark prices for Dutch TTF gas hubs have soared by more than 50% as supply expectations tighten. Europe now needs to secure additional cargo (an estimated 700 LNG shipments this summer) and has an urgent need to diversify away from centralized sources. In this context, African gas resources and new export projects are re-emerging as a strategic element in Europe’s supply equation.
Supply shortage in Europe: scramble triggered by turmoil in Qatar
European strategies have reshaped the import profile. The EU currently sources its gas via LNG, which accounts for 41% of the EU’s LNG imports in recent years, as pipeline gas from Russia will be completely cut by 2027. The United States has emerged as a leading LNG supplier, supplying 58% of Europe’s LNG imports in 2025, with Norway supplying 30% of pipeline imports and North Africa 13%.
However, relying on a limited number of suppliers comes with risks. Qatar, which accounts for 8% of the EU’s total LNG imports, has seen its exports plummet since the facility was shut down, forcing Europe to compete with Asian buyers for available cargo. This caused LNG prices to rise sharply in the global spot market.
Certain countries in the EU are more at risk than others. Belgium receives 4.3 bcm and Italy 6.5 bcm from Qatar’s LNG alone. Meanwhile, storage levels vary widely across the region, increasing short-term risks. These disparities mean that countries with low storage volumes and high dependence on Qatari LNG face significant pressure to secure alternative cargoes on the global spot market, leaving importers vulnerable to price fluctuations and supply tightness.
Can Africa unlock Europe’s gas diversification strategy?
As Europe seeks stable gas alternatives, Africa has an advantage. In 2025, North Africa exported a total of approximately 41 billion bcm of natural gas to Europe. Algeria remains a cornerstone, shipping tens of billions of cubic meters a year to Spain and Italy via pipelines such as Medgas. Although production is modest due to internal fluctuations, Libya is contributing to Europe through the GreenStream pipeline.
In West Africa, Nigeria accounts for about 5% of the EU’s LNG imports, or about 1.9bcm. Emerging projects such as Greater Tortue Armayim LNG in Senegal and Mauritania and Barein in Ivory Coast could provide new corridors with forecast capacity of millions of tonnes per year.
This existing supply, coupled with geographical proximity, established export infrastructure and a growing project pipeline in Senegal and Mauritania, aligns with Europe’s broader diversification agenda and reduces dependence on distant sources of supply.
European countries illustrate the importance of diversification. Portugal has been restructuring its LNG procurement strategy, gradually reducing its dependence on traditional suppliers. In 2024, Portugal would import 96% of its LNG, Nigeria would supply 51% of that volume, and the United States would supply about 40%. This diversified portfolio has helped insulate the country from recent geopolitical supply shocks. Spain followed a similar path. In 2025, US LNG alone will account for around 35% of Spain’s gas imports, while Algerian pipeline gas remains a major complementary source.
For investors, these national strategies demonstrate that a broad and geographically diversified supplier base can reduce exposure to geopolitical turmoil, stabilize markets, and create a more predictable energy cost environment. As Europe reevaluates its security of supply, African countries could play an increasing role in strengthening the continent’s long-term diversification strategy.
